Ukraine

Context analysis

Following four months of anti-government protests (November 2013 – February 2014) that resulted in a change in the country’s political leadership, instability spread to the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in March 2014, resulting in the loss of government authority over certain parts of that territory and the formation of armed groups opposed to the new government. Since then, levels of fighting between government armed forces and anti-government groups has fluctuated, with regular flare ups taking place primarily in areas close to the ‘line of contact’, despite the signing of two ceasefire agreements between different parties to the conflict in September 2014 and February 2015. The ongoing instability in the east has prompted the displacement of more than 1.4 million people and has left more than 5 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. The political sensitivities inherent to the conflict have complicated issues around acceptance and access for humanitarians, who are also exposed to a variety of security risks emanating from the ongoing armed conflict, including exchange of gunfire, land mines and unexploded ordnances.

OPERATIONAL SINCE
2015*

INSO FACTS & FIGURES

27
STAFF
36
NGO
MEMBERS
5 M
PEOPLE IN NEED
(OCHA)

Gross Incident Rate

Jan to Mar 2017

The Gross Incident Rate (GIR) consists of all security incidents recorded and reported by INSO in this country for the stated period with no disaggregation or exclusion. It includes conflict and criminal related incidents; serious (i.e. bombings) and non-serious events (i.e. demonstrations); and both security improving (i.e. arrests/seizures) and security-deteriorating incidents (i.e. attacks). The Gross Incident Rate is valuable in providing a snapshot of the overall level of volatility in the country.  It is not valuable in assessing the specific risk to NGOs and/or whether a situation is becoming better or worse as changes in the GIR may be caused by both positive (more arrests) or negative (more attacks) trends.
TOTAL
Jan to Mar 2017
Total incidents recorded in Ukraine this August to date. Updated monthly.




5248
INCIDENTS
PER MONTH
Jan to Mar 2017
Total incidents per month from this August to date. Updated monthly.


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AUTHOR
Jan to Mar 2017
Percentage of incidents by author*
(conflict / criminal). Updated monthly.


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NGO INCIDENT RATE

Jan to Mar 2017

The NGO Incident Rate (NIR) comprises a gross count of all incidents that involved an NGO in this country for the stated time period. It includes both criminal and conflict related events; serious (i.e. killings/abductions) and non-serious (i.e. threats, petty robbery) incidents; and occurrences of both direct, indirect and/or accidental/collateral involvement. The NIR is valuable in evaluating NGO general exposure to ambient insecurity in this country and whether there is a negative or positive directional trend over time. Where the NIR shows no clear pattern over time, specific NGO targeting is assumed not to be present however it is important to remember that rate changes are also affected by per-capita density and NGO mobility. Neither INSO nor any other entity we are aware of has meaningful data on these two components, meaning that numbers should be taken as gross indicators only.  
TOTAL
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO incidents in Ukraine this August to date. Updated monthly.




7
NGO INCIDENTS
PER MONTH
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO incidents per month from this August to date. Updated monthly.


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TYPE
Jan to Mar 2017
Percentage of incidents by type* (Assault, IED, Intimidation etc). Updated monthly.


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NGO FATALITY RATE

Jan to Mar 2017

The NGO Fatality Rate (NFR) comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been killed or died in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross organisations only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. The count includes both criminal and conflict related causes; targeted and accidental deaths and all types of weapons/tactics. The NGO Fatality Rate works with the NIR and is valuable in determining the likelihood of this most serious result and whether there is a negative or positive directional trend over time. Where there is no clear upwards trend in NGO deaths, we assess that systematic targeting of NGOs does not exist and that deaths rather occur as a result of exposure to ambient insecurity albeit with occasional targeted events.
TOTAL
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO fatalities in Ukraine this August to date. Updated monthly.




0
NGO FATALITIES
PER MONTH
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO fatalities per month from this August to date. Updated monthly.


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NATIONALITY
Jan to Mar 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff fatalities. Updated monthly.


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0
NO DATA

NGO INJURY RATE

Jan to Mar 2017

The NGO Injury Rate comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been injured in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. The count includes both accidental and deliberate causes. In the case where an individual subsequently dies from their injuries, they have been removed from this count and added to the NFR.
TOTAL
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO injuries in Ukraine this August to date. Updated monthly.




0
NGO INJURIES
PER MONTH
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO injuries per month from this August to date. Updated monthly.


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NATIONALITY
Jan to Mar 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff injuries. Updated monthly.


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0
NO DATA

NGO ABDUCTION RATE

Jan to Mar 2017

The NGO Abduction Rate comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been abducted in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. For this purpose "abduction" includes all cases of NGO workers being taken against their will and unlawfully for any purpose and for any duration. Some abductions turn in to kidnapping (where political or criminal demands are made) and some in to detentions (where the victim is released without demand).
TOTAL
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO abductions in Ukraine this August to date. Updated monthly.




0
NGO ABDUCTIONS
PER MONTH
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO abductions per month from this August to date. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact numbers.


NATIONALITY
Jan to Mar 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff abductions. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact percentages.


0
NO DATA
ALERTS SENT
3
REPORTS SENT
121
NGO ROUNDTABLES HOSTED
9
COUNTRY DIRECTOR'S MEETINGS
0
INSO NGO Service Jan to Mar 2017

Key Risks & Mitigation Measures

Risk

Collateral exposure to fighting between anti-government groups and government armed forces, both of which draw on a variety of weaponry: with regular ceasefire violations occurring in the vicinity of the ‘line of contact’, particularly around Donetsk City, the risks to NGOs accessing non-government controlled areas are significant and often unpredictable.

Risk

Intimidation towards NGOs: The breakdown of the rule of law in non-government controlled areas has contributed to a fragmentation of local actors, many of which operate outside the command and control structures of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR). The risk of intimidation and temporary detention at illegal checkpoints by such actors is credible.

Risk

Negative perceptions of NGO’s programming or profile: Whilst incidents of NGOs being a direct target of hostility have been rare, there has been one such case in which an NGO’s operations had to be halted following accusations by anti-government groups of covert activities. Misperceptions of NGO’s activities among such groups remain a risk.

Mitigation

Closely monitor the local security environment and assess the security situation prior to any movement. Avoid known flashpoints.

Mitigation

Remain calm when stopped at illegal checkpoints and cooperate with local actors whilst emphasising the programme’s neutrality and impartiality.

Mitigation

Maintain awareness of how NGOs are perceived in conflict areas. Actively communicate programmes to all actors.

Risk

Collateral exposure to fighting between anti-government groups and government armed forces, both of which draw on a variety of weaponry: with regular ceasefire violations occurring in the vicinity of the ‘line of contact’, particularly around Donetsk City, the risks to NGOs accessing non-government controlled areas are significant and often unpredictable.

Mitigation

Closely monitor the local security environment and assess the security situation prior to any movement. Avoid known flashpoints.


Risk

Intimidation towards NGOs: The breakdown of the rule of law in non-government controlled areas has contributed to a fragmentation of local actors, many of which operate outside the command and control structures of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR). The risk of intimidation and temporary detention at illegal checkpoints by such actors is credible.

Mitigation

Remain calm when stopped at illegal checkpoints and cooperate with local actors whilst emphasising the programme’s neutrality and impartiality.


Risk

Negative perceptions of NGO’s programming or profile: Whilst incidents of NGOs being a direct target of hostility have been rare, there has been one such case in which an NGO’s operations had to be halted following accusations by anti-government groups of covert activities. Misperceptions of NGO’s activities among such groups remain a risk.

Mitigation

Maintain awareness of how NGOs are perceived in conflict areas. Actively communicate programmes to all actors.