Somalia

Context analysis

The AMISOM military intervention which began in 2011 and removed Al Shabaab (AS) from Mogadishu and the most relevant towns of South Central Somalia, is directly linked to the increase in armed clashes and attacks on SNG and AMISOM positions. Armed clashes not initiated by AS are also on the rise due to SNG's inability to fill the power vacuum left by AS. The resurgence of inter-clan fighting over resources like land and water - often involving the Somali National Army supporting one of the feuding sides - has been extreme in some regions, compromising the State's legitimacy due to its inability to protect civilians or guarantee peace and security. Somalia remains one of most dangerous countries in the world for aid workers. Critical indicators have not improved in the last year, with 11 aid workers killed. Arrests and brief abductions also remain frequent (almost all affecting national staff). Delivery of aid continues to be a risky business, with frequent riots during distributions that have led to the shooting and killing of some beneficiaries. Throughout 2014, there have been signs of increased political confrontation and shrinking humanitarian space with aid workers targeted as a means of delivering political statements. While access may be growing in some areas, security constraints remain in force.

OPERATIONAL SINCE
2004*

INSO FACTS & FIGURES

32
STAFF
188
NGO
MEMBERS
3.5 M
FOOD INSECURE
(OCHA)

Gross Incident Rate

Jan to Feb 2017

The Gross Incident Rate (GIR) consists of all security incidents recorded and reported by INSO in this country for the stated period with no disaggregation or exclusion. It includes conflict and criminal related incidents; serious (i.e. bombings) and non-serious events (i.e. demonstrations); and both security improving (i.e. arrests/seizures) and security-deteriorating incidents (i.e. attacks). The Gross Incident Rate is valuable in providing a snapshot of the overall level of volatility in the country.  It is not valuable in assessing the specific risk to NGOs and/or whether a situation is becoming better or worse as changes in the GIR may be caused by both positive (more arrests) or negative (more attacks) trends.
TOTAL
Jan to Feb 2017
Total incidents in Somalia this year to date. Updated monthly.




911
INCIDENTS
PER MONTH
Jan to Feb 2017
Total incidents per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact numbers.


AUTHOR
Jan to Feb 2017
Percentage of incidents by author* 
(conflict / criminal). Updated monthly.


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NGO INCIDENT Rate

Jan to Feb 2017

The NGO Incident Rate (NIR) comprises a gross count of all incidents that involved an NGO in this country for the stated time period. It includes both criminal and conflict related events; serious (i.e. killings/abductions) and non-serious (i.e. threats, petty robbery) incidents; and occurrences of both direct, indirect and/or accidental/collateral involvement. The NIR is valuable in evaluating NGO general exposure to ambient insecurity in this country and whether there is a negative or positive directional trend over time. Where the NIR shows no clear pattern over time, specific NGO targeting is assumed not to be present however it is important to remember that rate changes are also affected by per-capita density and NGO mobility. Neither INSO nor any other entity we are aware of has meaningful data on these two components, meaning that numbers should be taken as gross indicators only.  

Total
Jan to Feb 2017
Total NGO incidents in Somalia this year to date. Updated monthly.




16
NGO INCIDENTS
PER MONTH
Jan to Feb 2017
Total NGO incidents per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


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Type
Jan to Feb 2017
Percentage of incidents by type* (SAF, IED, intimidation etc). Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact percentages. 


NGO Fatality Rate

Jan to Feb 2017

The NGO Fatality Rate (NFR) comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been killed or died in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross organisations only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. The count includes both criminal and conflict related causes; targeted and accidental deaths and all types of weapons/tactics. The NGO Fatality Rate works with the NIR and is valuable in determining the likelihood of this most serious result and whether there is a negative or positive directional trend over time. Where there is no clear upwards trend in NGO deaths, we assess that systematic targeting of NGOs does not exist and that deaths rather occur as a result of exposure to ambient insecurity albeit with occasional targeted events.

Total
Jan to Feb 2017
Total NGO fatalities in Somalia this year to date. Updated monthly.




1
NGO FATALITIES
PER MONTH
Jan to Feb 2017
Total NGO fatalities per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


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NATIONALITY
Jan to Feb 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff fatalities. Updated monthly.


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NGO Injury Rate

Jan to Feb 2017

The NGO Injury Rate comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been injured in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. The count includes both accidental and deliberate causes. In the case where an individual subsequently dies from their injuries, they have been removed from this count and added to the NFR.
Total
Jan to Feb 2017
Total NGO injuries in Somalia this year to date. Updated monthly.




1
NGO INJURIES
PER MONTH
Jan to Feb 2017
Total NGO injuries per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact numbers.


NATIONALITY
Jan to Feb 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff injuries. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact percentages.


NGO Abduction Rate

Jan to Feb 2017

The NGO Abduction Rate comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been abducted in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. For this purpose "abduction" includes all cases of NGO workers being taken against their will and unlawfully for any purpose and for any duration. Some abductions turn in to kidnapping (where political or criminal demands are made) and some in to detentions (where the victim is released without demand).
Total
Jan to Feb 2017
Total NGO abductions in Somalia this year to date. Updated monthly.




2
NGO ABDUCTIONS
PER MONTH
Jan to Feb 2017
Total NGO abductions per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact numbers


NATIONALITY
Jan to Feb 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff abductions. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact percentages.


*The Somalia programme was transferred from NSP to INSO in 2015

Key Risks & Mitigation Measures

Risk

Collateral exposure to different forms of violence (armed clashes, explosive devices, etc.): Somalia remains one of the most violent contexts globally.

Risk

NGOs may be associated with the international agenda of stabilisation: Political statements by different actors generate a lot of attention by targeting International NGOs.

Risk

Resources: The allocation of NGO resources are a source of conflict and potential security issues.

Mitigation

Avoid proximity to conflict actors, assess possible causes of conflict events and ensure access to geographical occurrence mapping.

Mitigation

Respect for the principles of neutrality and impartiality remain fundamental in the Somali context. NGOs must actively communicate the neutral nature of their programming to local actors and correct misperceptions.

Mitigation

Sound and transparent management of resources which is perceived of as fair by the different stakeholders will ensure greater acceptance.

Risk

Collateral exposure to different forms of violence (armed clashes, explosive devices, etc.): Somalia remains one of the most violent contexts globally.

Mitigation

Avoid proximity to conflict actors, assess possible causes of conflict events and ensure access to geographical occurrence mapping.


Risk

NGOs may be associated with the international agenda of stabilisation: Political statements by different actors generate a lot of attention by targeting International NGOs.

Mitigation

Respect for the principles of neutrality and impartiality remain fundamental in the Somali context. NGOs must actively communicate the neutral nature of their programming to local actors and correct misperceptions.


Risk

Resources: The allocation of NGO resources are a source of conflict and potential security issues.

Mitigation

Sound and transparent management of resources which is perceived of as fair by the different stakeholders will ensure greater acceptance.