Kenya

Context analysis

The security context in Kenya saw a clear degradation throughout 2014, mostly due to an increased volume of AOG of which the most notable is Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM) who have carried out serious attacks along a 1000 km belt from NEP to the coast. The coast has emerged as a new theatre of operation for AOG perpetrated by local movements (MRC, NMI) with their own political agenda but linked to HSM.  In Nairobi the number of AOG attacks dropped significantly since May 2014, although there are indications that HSM retains the intention and the capacity to carry out a major operation in Nairobi. Crime remains stable, with a slight decrease in incident volume in Nairobi during the second part of 2014. Ethno-political violence and cattle rustling remain a constant and important fixture of the security environment in Kenya. Overall, in 2014 security became a dominant topic in Kenyan politics and a major concern for both the population and NGOs, particularly those operating in NEP where humanitarian access remains challenging. This security situation is expected to continue in 2015. 

OPERATIONAL SINCE
2012

INSO FACTS & FIGURES

30+
STAFF
180
NGO
MEMBERS
1.5 M
People in need
(ECHO)

Gross Incident Rate

Jan to May 2017

The Gross Incident Rate (GIR) consists of all security incidents recorded and reported by INSO in this country for the stated period with no disaggregation or exclusion. It includes conflict and criminal related incidents; serious (i.e. bombings) and non-serious events (i.e. demonstrations); and both security improving (i.e. arrests/seizures) and security-deteriorating incidents (i.e. attacks). The Gross Incident Rate is valuable in providing a snapshot of the overall level of volatility in the country.  It is not valuable in assessing the specific risk to NGOs and/or whether a situation is becoming better or worse as changes in the GIR may be caused by both positive (more arrests) or negative (more attacks) trends.
Total
Jan to May 2017
Total incidents recorded in Kenya this year to date. Updated monthly.





4594
INCIDENTS
PER MONTH
Jan to May 2017
Total incidents per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.



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AUTHOR
Jan to May 2017
Percentage of incidents by author* (arrests, government security operations, armed opposition, tribal and criminal activity). Updated monthly.

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NGO INCIDENT Rate

Jan to May 2017

The NGO Incident Rate (NIR) comprises a gross count of all incidents that involved an NGO in this country for the stated time period. It includes both criminal and conflict related events; serious (i.e. killings/abductions) and non-serious (i.e. threats, petty robbery) incidents; and occurrences of both direct, indirect and/or accidental/collateral involvement. The NIR is valuable in evaluating NGO general exposure to ambient insecurity in this country and whether there is a negative or positive directional trend over time. Where the NIR shows no clear pattern over time, specific NGO targeting is assumed not to be present however it is important to remember that rate changes are also affected by per-capita density and NGO mobility. Neither INSO nor any other entity we are aware of has meaningful data on these two components, meaning that numbers should be taken as gross indicators only.  

Total
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO incidents in Kenya this year to date. Updated monthly.




18
NGO INCIDENTS
PER MONTH
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO incidents per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


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Type
Jan to May 2017
Percentage of incidents by type* (SAF, IED, intimidation etc). Updated monthly.


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NGO Fatality Rate

Jan to May 2017

The NGO Fatality Rate (NFR) comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been killed or died in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross organisations only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. The count includes both criminal and conflict related causes; targeted and accidental deaths and all types of weapons/tactics. The NGO Fatality Rate works with the NIR and is valuable in determining the likelihood of this most serious result and whether there is a negative or positive directional trend over time. Where there is no clear upwards trend in NGO deaths, we assess that systematic targeting of NGOs does not exist and that deaths rather occur as a result of exposure to ambient insecurity albeit with occasional targeted events.

Total
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO fatalities in Kenya this year to date. Updated monthly.




0
NGO FATALITIES
PER MONTH
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO fatalities per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


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NATIONALITY
Jan to May 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff fatalities. Updated monthly.


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0
NO DATA

NGO Injury Rate

Jan to May 2017

The NGO Injury Rate comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been injured in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. The count includes both accidental and deliberate causes. In the case where an individual subsequently dies from their injuries, they have been removed from this count and added to the NFR.
Total
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO injuries in Kenya this year to date. Updated monthly.




2
NGO INJURIES
PER MONTH
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO injuries per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


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NATIONALITY
Jan to May 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff injuries. Updated monthly.


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NGO Abduction Rate

Jan to May 2017

The NGO Abduction Rate comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been abducted in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. For this purpose "abduction" includes all cases of NGO workers being taken against their will and unlawfully for any purpose and for any duration. Some abductions turn in to kidnapping (where political or criminal demands are made) and some in to detentions (where the victim is released without demand).
Total
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO abductions in Kenya this year to date. Updated monthly.




0
NGO ABDUCTIONS
PER MONTH
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO abductions per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


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NATIONALITY
Jan to May 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff abductions. Updated monthly.


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0
NO DATA
ALERTS SENT
44
REPORTS SENT
88
NGO ROUNDTABLES HOSTED
30
COUNTRY DIRECTOR MEETINGS
5
INSO NGO Service Register: Jan to May 2017

Key Risks & Mitigation Measures

Risk

Collateral exposure to AOG attacks: 2014 recorded the highest level of AOG activity. Theatres of AOG operations include Nairobi, North Eastern Province and the Coast province. AOG retain the intention and capacity to carry out large scale attacks.

Risk

Crime: Crime remains endemic in major urban centres, particularly in Nairobi.

Risk

Ethno-political violence: Cattle rustling and ethno-political violence will remain a high risk, particularly in Arid and Semi-Arid Land areas, a situation reinforced by potential drought.

Mitigation

Reduce exposure in Nairobi and Coast. Control of movements and no go zones in North Eastern Province. Ensure NGO neutrality is understood amongst local actors.

Mitigation

Ensure that staff take basic precautions, including varying movement times (especially if transporting large sums of money). Valuables should not be overtly displayed and compounds should be properly secured. Avoid all movement on foot at night.

Mitigation

Ensure strong community acceptance with diversified teams in terms of community origin. Reduce movement when tensions arise.

Risk

Collateral exposure to AOG attacks: 2014 recorded the highest level of AOG activity. Theatres of AOG operations include Nairobi, North Eastern Province and the Coast province. AOG retain the intention and capacity to carry out large scale attacks.

Mitigation

Reduce exposure in Nairobi and Coast. Control of movements and no go zones in North Eastern Province. Ensure NGO neutrality is understood amongst local actors.


Risk

Crime: Crime remains endemic in major urban centres, particularly in Nairobi.

Mitigation

Ensure that staff take basic precautions, including varying movement times (especially if transporting large sums of money). Valuables should not be overtly displayed and compounds should be properly secured. Avoid all movement on foot at night.


Risk

Ethno-political violence: Cattle rustling and ethno-political violence will remain a high risk, particularly in Arid and Semi-Arid Land areas, a situation reinforced by potential drought.

Mitigation

Ensure strong community acceptance with diversified teams in terms of community origin. Reduce movement when tensions arise.