Afghanistan

Context analysis

In contrast to the diminishing presence of NATO forces following the official end of its combat mission, the leadership, manpower and organisation of the IEA (Taliban) remains capable of conducting aggressive combat operations across the country. Despite their growth, government armed forces have so far been unable to fill the security gap left by the departing NATO soldiers and, along with government civilians, have become the primary targets of operations conducted by AOG. The expanding capability and will demonstrated by both sides resulted in 2014 seeing the highest levels of both armed opposition group and ANSF activity of any year on record, and thus a corresponding increase in humanitarian vulnerabilities – not only in terms of collateral involvement in political violence, but also actions specifically aimed to shape the humanitarian space. With peace talks stalled, Afghanistan appears once again set to enter a period of protracted conflict in which the dominant paradigm of ‘NATO vs Taliban' will be replaced by multiple overlapping conflicts both between and within Afghan groups – a development that would further increase the potential for NGOs to face increased criminality and less controlled violence.

OPERATIONAL SINCE
2011

INSO FACTS & FIGURES

100
STAFF
265
NGO
MEMBERS
9.3 M
PEOPLE IN NEED
(OCHA)

Gross Incident Rate

Jan to Mar 2017

The Gross Incident Rate (GIR) consists of all security incidents recorded and reported by INSO in this country for the stated period with no disaggregation or exclusion. It includes conflict and criminal related incidents; serious (i.e. bombings) and non-serious events (i.e. demonstrations); and both security improving (i.e. arrests/seizures) and security-deteriorating incidents (i.e. attacks). The Gross Incident Rate is valuable in providing a snapshot of the overall level of volatility in the country.  It is not valuable in assessing the specific risk to NGOs and/or whether a situation is becoming better or worse as changes in the GIR may be caused by both positive (more arrests) or negative (more attacks) trends. 

TOTAL
Jan to Mar 2017
Total incidents recorded in Afghanistan this year to date. Updated monthly.




6799
INCIDENTS
PER MONTH
Jan to Mar 2017
Total incidents per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


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AUTHOR
Jan to Mar 2017
Percentage of incidents by author* 
(conflict / criminal). Updated monthly.


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NGO INCIDENT Rate

Jan to Mar 2017

The NGO Incident Rate (NIR) comprises a gross count of all incidents that involved an NGO in this country for the stated time period. It includes both criminal and conflict related events; serious (i.e. killings/abductions) and non-serious (i.e. threats, petty robbery) incidents; and occurrences of both direct, indirect and/or accidental/collateral involvement. The NIR is valuable in evaluating NGO general exposure to ambient insecurity in this country and whether there is a negative or positive directional trend over time. Where the NIR shows no clear pattern over time, specific NGO targeting is assumed not to be present however it is important to remember that rate changes are also affected by per-capita density and NGO mobility. Neither INSO nor any other entity we are aware of has meaningful data on these two components, meaning that numbers should be taken as gross indicators only.

TOTAL
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO incidents in Afghanistan this year to date. Updated monthly.




39
NGO INCIDENTS
PER MONTH
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO incidents per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


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TYPE
Jan to Mar 2017
Percentage of incidents by type* (SAF, IED, intimidation etc). Updated monthly.


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NGO Fatality Rate

Jan to Mar 2017

The NGO Fatality Rate (NFR) comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been killed or died in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross organisations only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. The count includes both criminal and conflict related causes; targeted and accidental deaths and all types of weapons/tactics. The NGO Fatality Rate works with the NIR and is valuable in determining the likelihood of this most serious result and whether there is a negative or positive directional trend over time. Where there is no clear upwards trend in NGO deaths, we assess that systematic targeting of NGOs does not exist and that deaths rather occur as a result of exposure to ambient insecurity albeit with occasional targeted events.

TOTAL
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO fatalities in Afghanistan this year to date. Updated monthly.




6
NGO FATALITIES
PER MONTH
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO fatalities per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


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NATIONALITY
Jan to Mar 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff fatalities. Updated monthly.


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NGO Injury Rate

Jan to Mar 2017

The NGO Injury Rate comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been injured in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. The count includes both accidental and deliberate causes. In the case where an individual subsequently dies from their injuries, they have been removed from this count and added to the NFR.

Total
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO injuries in Afghanistan this year to date. Updated monthly.




4
NGO INJURIES
PER MONTH
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO injuries per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


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NATIONALITY
Jan to Mar 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff injuries. Updated monthly.


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NGO Abduction Rate

Jan to Mar 2017

The NGO Abduction Rate comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been abducted in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. For this purpose "abduction" includes all cases of NGO workers being taken against their will and unlawfully for any purpose and for any duration. Some abductions turn in to kidnapping (where political or criminal demands are made) and some in to detentions (where the victim is released without demand). 

Total
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO abductions in Afghanistan this year to date. Updated monthly.




3
NGO ABDUCTIONS
PER MONTH
Jan to Mar 2017
Total NGO abductions per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


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NATIONALITY
Jan to Mar 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff abductions. Updated monthly.


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ALERTS SENT
763
REPORTS SENT
98
NGO ROUNDTABLES HOSTED
41
NEW STAFF ORIENTATIONS
3
INSO NGO Service Register: Jan to Mar 2017

Key Risks & Mitigation Measures

Risk

Misperceptions or negative perceptions of NGO programming among local actors: Whilst incidents of NGOs being the direct targets of hostility remain rare, there have been several prominent cases in which NGOs were targeted as a result of their activities being perceived as either non-neutral or in violation of Afghanistan’s cultural or religious customs. With local operating environments becoming increasingly complex and the array of armed actors both broader and more fragmented, this presents a key risk to NGOs.

Risk

Collateral exposure to fighting between opposition groups and Afghan security forces: 2014 recorded the highest level of AOG activity of any year on record. With the conflict now largely domestic in character, the risk to NGOs of being caught up in fighting between armed opposition groups and Afghan security forces is significant.

Risk

Crime: Although crime is far from endemic and mostly limited to robberies or interpersonal disputes, it is on the rise in a number of urban population centres.

Mitigation

It is imperative that NGOs maintain awareness of how they are perceived in the areas in which they work, live and travel and actively communicate the neutral nature of their programming to local actors.

Mitigation

Avoid close proximity to conflict actors. Closely monitor and assess local security environments.

Mitigation

Ensure that staff take basic precautions, including varying movement times (especially if transporting large sums of money). Valuables should not be overtly displayed and compounds should be properly secured.

Risk

Misperceptions or negative perceptions of NGO programming among local actors: Whilst incidents of NGOs being the direct targets of hostility remain rare, there have been several prominent cases in which NGOs were targeted as a result of their activities being perceived as either non-neutral or in violation of Afghanistan’s cultural or religious customs. With local operating environments becoming increasingly complex and the array of armed actors both broader and more fragmented, this presents a key risk to NGOs.

Mitigation

It is imperative that NGOs maintain awareness of how they are perceived in the areas in which they work, live and travel and actively communicate the neutral nature of their programming to local actors.


Risk

Collateral exposure to fighting between opposition groups and Afghan security forces: 2014 recorded the highest level of AOG activity of any year on record. With the conflict now largely domestic in character, the risk to NGOs of being caught up in fighting between armed opposition groups and Afghan security forces is significant.

Mitigation

Avoid close proximity to conflict actors. Closely monitor and assess local security environments.


Risk

Crime: Although crime is far from endemic and mostly limited to robberies or interpersonal disputes, it is on the rise in a number of urban population centres.

Mitigation

Ensure that staff take basic precautions, including varying movement times (especially if transporting large sums of money). Valuables should not be overtly displayed and compounds should be properly secured.